There is a substantial and varied collection of literature that examines the linkages between country stability and macro-structural factors—including public health, economic growth, and political conditions—such as the Analyzing Complex Threats for Operations and Readiness (ACTOR) methodology developed by the U.S. Army’s Center for Army Analysis (CAA).However, this literature does not account for the direct or indirect effects of access to energy.While qualitative studies have been conducted to examine the impacts of access to energy on quality of life and social and economic development, there has been little empirical analysis to substantiate this relationship and to establish the magnitude.
The Energy and Country Instability (ECI) study addressed these gaps by developing a methodology using a statistical model to specify (i) direct effects of energy on country stability and (ii) indirect effects of energy on country stability mediated by macro-structural factors that are known to affect stability.
The purpose of the ECI analysis was to investigate and quantify the linkages between energy consumption, macro-structural factors, and stability at the country level for U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) recipient countries.ESG, in concert with Advanced Engineering Associates International (AEAI), carried out the analysis and prepared the final report.The study was commissioned by USAID, in collaboration with AEAI, CAA, and the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations and Environment (OASA-I&E).